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The monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Survey responses were collected between March 3 and March 11.
Manufacturing activity contracted in New York State, according to the March survey. The general business conditions index dropped twenty-six points to -20.0. The new orders index fell twenty-six points to -14.9, and the shipments index fell twenty-three points to -8.5, indicating that both orders and shipments declined after increasing last month. Unfilled orders held steady. The inventories index moved up five points to 13.3, its highest reading in more than two years, signaling that business inventories continued to expand. The delivery times index came in at 1.0, and the supply availability index was -1.0, suggesting delivery times and supply availability were little changed.
The index for number of employees held steady at -4.1, and the average workweek index was -2.5, pointing to a slight decline in both employment and hours worked. Both price indexes climbed for a third consecutive month. The prices paid index rose five points to 44.9, its highest level in more than two years, and the prices received index rose three points to 22.4, its highest reading since May 2023.
Firms continued to grow less optimistic about the outlook. After dropping fifteen points last month, the index for future business activity fell another ten points to 12.7. Capital spending plans remained soft. Input price increases are expected to remain significant, and supply availability is expected to contract somewhat in the months ahead.
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025
JAN
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FEB
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MAR
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APR
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15 report
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18 report
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17 report
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15
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MAY
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JUN
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JUL
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AUG
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15
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16
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15
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15
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SEP
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OCT
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NOV
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DEC
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15
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15
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17
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15
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Participants from across the state in a variety of industries respond to a questionnaire and report the change in a variety of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also state the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. April 2002 is the first report, although survey data date back to July 2001.
The survey is sent on the first day of each month to the same pool of about 200 manufacturing executives in New York State, typically the president or CEO. About 100 responses are received. Most are completed by the tenth, although surveys are accepted until the fifteenth.
For demonstration only:
Sample
survey 1 page / 44 kb
Respondents come from a wide range of industries from across the New York State. No one industry dominates the respondent pool.
The survey's main index, general business conditions, is not a weighted average of other indicators—it is a distinct question posed on the survey. Each index is seasonally adjusted when stable seasonality is detected.
Revisions
Each January, all data undergo a benchmark revision
to reflect new seasonal factors.
Seasonal Adjustment
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey seasonally adjusts data based on the Census X-12 additive procedure utilizing a logistic transformation.
The "increase" and "decrease" percentage components of the diffusion indexes are each tested for seasonality separately and adjusted accordingly if such patterns exist. If no seasonality is detected, the component is left unadjusted. The "no change" component contains the residual, computed by subtracting the (adjusted) increase and decrease from 100. Seasonal factors are forecast in December for the upcoming year.
Data are adjusted using a logistic transformation. The not-seasonally adjusted series, expressed in decimal form (referred to as "p"), is transformed using the following equation:
X = log(p/(1-p))
The seasonal factor is then subtracted from X:
adjX = X - seasonal factor
The result is then transformed using the following equation:
SA Series = exponential(adjX)/(1+exponential(adjX))
To view the Seasonal Factors data, please click on the “Data & Charts” tab.
Contacts
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025