Informations Rapides · 21 November 2024 · n° 286

In November 2024, the business climate in manufacturing industry has partially rebounded Monthly business survey (goods-producing industries) - November 2024

According to business managers surveyed in November 2024, the business climate in manufacturing industry has partially rebounded. At 97, the synthetic indicator has gained four points, after losing six in October. However, it remains below its long-term average (100) for the seventh month in a row. All of the balances of opinion defining the climate have contributed to its rebound, except the general production prospects.

In November 2024, the balance of opinion on past production has rebounded but remains well below its long-term average. The balance of opinion on personal production expectations has also rebounded and has almost gone back to its own. On the contrary, the balance relating to general production prospects in the industry has decreased again and moved further away from its average. The balance on economic uncertainty felt by business leaders has retreated and moved away from its average.

The balances of opinion associated with the level of order books, both global and foreign, have rebounded. However, they remain quite significantly below their respective average.

The balance of opinion on the current level of finished-goods inventories has sharply retreated and has gone back below its average.

The balances of opinion on the evolution of workforce size, both past and expected, have rebounded. Both are well above their average.

The balance of opinion relating to the expected trend in selling prices over the next three months has retreated and returned just below its average.

The share of companies declaring being limited in their production by workforce shortage has slightly decreased again and has moved closer to its average. The share of companies declaring sourcing difficulties as a factor limiting their production is stable, at its average level, for the third consecutive month. In total, the proportion of companies declaring supply-side obstacles only has slightly decreased: at 24%, it has moved closer to its long-term average. Lastly, the share of companies declaring obstacles linked to demand only is stable for the third month in a row: at 28%, it remains well below its long-period average.

In November 2024, the business climate indicator in the manufacturing of food products and beverages has increased again. At 97, it has moved closer to its long-period average. This slight increase results from a very positive contribution from the balances of opinion on the evolution of past production and on the level of finished-goods inventories, partly offset by the withdrawal of the balance of opinion on the level of global order books. The latter has returned below its average.

In the manufacturing of machinery and equipment goods, the synthetic indicator of the business climate has started to rise again slightly and has moved closer to its average. The balance of opinion on personal production expectations has strongly rebounded, and the one relating to the level of foreign order books has slightly recovered. At the sub-sector level, the business climate indicator has increased in the manufacturing of computer, electronic and optical products and in the manufacturing of machinery and equipment, but it has clearly retreated in the manufacture of electrical equipment, where it has reached its lowest level since July 2020.

In the manufacturing of transport equipment, the synthetic indicator of the business climate has strongly rebounded but partially after a large fall in October: it has returned above its long-period average. All of the balances defining the climate, except the general production prospects, have contributed to this rebound. The indicator has rebounded both in the sub-sector of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers, where it remains quite significantly below its average, and in the manufacturing of “other transport equipment”, where it has moved away from to its own. In the sub-sector of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers, despite a sharp decline in past production, the balances of opinion on the level of order books and on personal production expectations have strongly started to increase. In the manufacturing of “other transport equipment”, the evolution of past production and the balances of opinion on the level of order books, both global and foreign, mainly explain the rebound.

Finally, the business climate indicator in “other manufacturing” is stable (after rounding). At 94, the indicator is quite significantly below its long-term average. At the sub-sector level, the climate has rebounded in “textiles, clothing industries, leather and footwear industry”, in “wood, paper, printing” and has kept on rising in "basic metals and fabricated metal products", while it has withdrawn in “chemicals and chemical products”, in “other industrial products” and in "rubber and plastic products".

The business climate in manufacturing industry of October 2024 has been revised upwards by one point (after rounding). This revision is mainly due to the inclusion of late responses from businesses.