Source: New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations
SURVEY OF CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS
February Survey: Short-Term Inflation Expectations Tick Up, Medium- and Longer-Term Expectations Remain Unchanged
- Median inflation expectations increased by 0.1 percentage point (ppt) to 3.1 percent at the one-year horizon and were unchanged at 3.0 percent at the three-year- and five-year-ahead horizons.
- Consumers’ year-ahead expectations about their households’ financial situations deteriorated considerably in February. The share of households expecting a worse financial situation one year from now rose to 27.4 percent, its highest level since November 2023.
- Mean unemployment expectations—or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now—jumped up by 5.4 ppt to 39.4 percent in February, its highest reading since September 2023.
- The average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months increased by 1.3 ppt to 14.6 percent, its highest level since April 2020.
For more details:
Press Release: Medium- and Longer-Term Inflation Expectations Unchanged; Consumers’ Pessimism About Their Future Financial Situations Increases
