Survey of Consumer Expectations - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK

Center for Microeconomic Data

 
SURVEY OF CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS
February Survey: Short-Term Inflation Expectations Tick Up, Medium- and Longer-Term Expectations Remain Unchanged
  • Median inflation expectations increased by 0.1 percentage point (ppt) to 3.1 percent at the one-year horizon and were unchanged at 3.0 percent at the three-year- and five-year-ahead horizons.
  • Consumers’ year-ahead expectations about their households’ financial situations deteriorated considerably in February. The share of households expecting a worse financial situation one year from now rose to 27.4 percent, its highest level since November 2023.
  • Mean unemployment expectations—or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now—jumped up by 5.4 ppt to 39.4 percent in February, its highest reading since September 2023.
  • The average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months increased by 1.3 ppt to 14.6 percent, its highest level since April 2020.



For more details:
Press Release: Medium- and Longer-Term Inflation Expectations Unchanged; Consumers’ Pessimism About Their Future Financial Situations Increases

inflation

Commodity price change expectations
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labor market

Expectations of higher unemployment
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household finance

Change in credit availability
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Fielding the Survey
The SCE is a nationally representative, Internet-based survey of a rotating panel of approximately 1,300 household heads. Respondents participate in the panel for up to twelve months, with a roughly equal number rotating in and out of the panel each month. Unlike comparable surveys based on repeated cross-sections with a different set of respondents in each wave, our panel enables us to observe the changes in expectations and behavior of the same individuals over time.
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